Having his say: A screengrap of www.jho-low.com website which contained the letter
Rogue businessman insists he is not guilty via letter on personal website
PETALING JAYA - Fugitive businessman Low Taek Jho has proclaimed his innocence over allegations related to 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) in a signed letter uploaded to his personal website.
Low, also known as Jho Low, admitted that in hindsight, he might have done things differently.
"But any mistakes I made do not amount to the sweepingly broad and destructive allegations being made against me.
"Let me be clear: I am innocent," Low wrote.
The website, www.jho-low.com, also contains legal documents related to the 1MDB case, news media articles on him and 1MDB as well as statements by Low’s lawyers.
A notice on the website said that jho-low.com was created on behalf of Low through his legal counsel to provide information to the public.
A search on the Internet archive shows that the website has been updated since 2015 but until recently only contained general information on Low.
According to the WHOIS database, jho-low.com was created on June 2, 2014.
Yesterday, the link to the website was shared extensively on social media, after the undated letter was posted.
“I only ask that everyone – courts, prosecutors, and the general public – keep an open mind until all of the evidence comes to light,” Low wrote in the letter.
The financier wrote that for the past several years, he had been subjected to a series of allegations around the globe in relation to the operations of 1MDB.
He said many of the allegations had originated from blog posts, “improper” leaks from governmental agencies around the world, or unproven allegations filed in court, where he had never been afforded an opportunity to set the record straight.
“I have been paraded in effigy through the streets of Kuala Lumpur, and photographs from my younger days plastered in tabloids across the globe.
“It has become clear that there is no platform where objective information can be presented regarding this issue – and no jurisdiction that hasn’t been poisoned by gossip, innuendo, and unproven allegations.
“This website is an effort to change that,” Low wrote.
The 36-year-old Penangite is described as a “global philanthropist, investor and entrepreneur” on the website.
A check with an official from a public affairs firm representing Low confirmed the veracity of the website.
Meanwhile, Swiss whistleblower Xavier Justo, in an immediate response, said: “The Jho Low website does not show any proof of his innocence.
“It is just a bunch of legal documents showing that he wants a few cases to be dismissed.
“It’s the way the justice system works, you can be as guilty as guilty is and ask for a case to be dismissed. It’s not proof of innocence,” he told The Star.
The former PetroSaudi International executive said he was appalled at Low’s attempts to defend himself through the website.
“Any decent person will face justice (in court) if he can prove that he is innocent,” he said.
He added that he was amazed at Low’s attempts to try to “stop the distribution of books, abuse the justice system and hire public relations officers to defend his reputation while also creating a website to tell fairy tales”.
Low’s current whereabouts are unknown; he has been speculated to be hiding in China or the Caribbean.
He and his father, Tan Sri Low Hock Peng, were charged in absentia in Malaysia last month over money allegedly stolen from 1MDB.
Last week, Low, through the London-based law firm Schillings, sought to ban the books, The Sarawak Report by Clare Rewcastle Brown and Billion Dollar Whale by The Wall Street Journal’s Tom Wright and Bradley Hope, from going on sale.
Vincent Tan denies investing US$250m in get-rich-quick 'Formula'
PETALING JAYA: Berjaya Corp Bhd founder and executive chairman Tan Sri Vincent Tan Chee Yioun (<<pic) has denied investing US$250 million in a project known as "The Formula" which allegedly promises huge profits and quick riches.
Tan said in a statement today said that the 'The Formula' is supposedly a share trading platform that allows trades executed through it to beat the stock market with an accuracy of 80% thereby allowing users to make huge profits.
"I refer to a current online media entitled 'Vincent Tan gives back to the people with his latest project" wherein it is reported that I have invested US$250 million in a project known as "The Formula" with a wish to make Malaysians wealthy.
"I would like to categorically deny that I have made an investment in this project or that I am in any way involved in it and there is absolutely no truth in this report which I believe has been put out by unscrupulous persons to deceive the public," Tan said.
Tan has reported the matter to the relevant authorities so that appropriate action can be taken and urged the public to take caution on promises of quick riches and not to fall prey to scams.
Tan said this is not the first time his name has been used in similar instances for the purpose of lending credibility to online investment scams.
On June 28 (see below), Tan exposed a dubious startup trading platform called "Bitcoin Formula" which used his name and doctored photos to promote its business.
An article claiming he had invested in and was promoting Bitcoin Formula, together with some photographs, was circulated on social media.
The article was accompanied by a few photographs, one showing Tan allegedly awarding a cheque for RM500,000 to Bitcoin Formula for winning the "Project of the Year" prize in a computer engineering "hackathon" in Kuala Lumpur, and another picture of him apparently speaking about Bitcoin Formula at a social media business summit.
Both pictures were in fact images altered with the use of photo-editing software and had originally been taken by theSun in March 2014 and January last year.
A check with the Companies Commission of Malaysia found that no company by the name of Bitcoin Formula exists.
This picture of Tan Sri Vincent Tan speaking at the Social Economic
Forum at the GK Enchanted Farm in Bulacan in the Philippines was
doctored to appear as if he was promoting Bitcoin Formula
PETALING JAYA: Berjaya group founder and executive chairman Tan Sri Vincent Tan has blown the whistle on a dubious startup trading platform called "Bitcoin Formula", which has used his name and doctored photos to promote its business.
It came to Tan's attention that an article claiming he had invested in and was promoting Bitcoin Formula, together with some photographs, was being circulated on social media after a friend who saw it asked him if it would indeed be a good investment.
"How can it be a good investment when the operators have to resort to such dishonest ways like using my name in fake reports and doctored photographs to promote their business?" he said.
"I think anyone who invests in such a shady business will surely lose their money," said Tan, who urged the public not to be deceived by such posts on social media.
The article about the company, that purports to promote blockchain and crypto technologies, claimed Tan had donated RM500,000 to Bitcoin Formula, a supposed financial startup by young computer engineers developing an efficient trading platform.
The article was accompanied by a few photographs, one showing Tan allegedly awarding a cheque for RM500,000 to Bitcoin Formula for winning the "Project of the Year" prize in a computer engineering "hackathon" in Kuala Lumpur, and another picture of him apparently speaking about Bitcoin Formula at a social business summit.
Both pictures were in fact images altered with the use of photo-editing software, and had originally been taken by theSun in March 2014 and January last year.
The cheque presentation photo was actually of Tan presenting a RM500,000 award to representatives of Dharma Master Cheng Yen of the Taiwan Buddhist Tzu Chi Foundation after she was named Better Malaysia Foundation's Personality of the Year in 2015.
The other image was taken when Tan was speaking at the Social Economic Forum that was held at the GK Enchanted Farm in Bulacan, in the Philippines.
A check with the Companies Commission of Malaysia found that no company by the name of Bitcoin Formula exists.
Tan is apparently the latest prominent person whose name had been used by get-rich-quick scheme operators to scam unsuspecting people, and prominent tycoons like AirAsia founder Tan Sri Tony Fernandes and "Sugar King" Robert Kuok were among people whose names have been used by these scammers.
Tan also dismissed a Facebook article claiming that he will be donating RM525 million to Tabung Harapan Malaysia.
"There is absolutely no truth to either of these reports, that I believe have been put out by unscrupulous persons to deceive the public. I hope the public do not get fooled by these fake reports," he added.
Credit:
Amar Shah Mohsen newsdesk@thesundaily.com
Not-so-nice figures: Moon has seen his
popularity slide amid criticism that he’s hurting employment by
aggressively increasing the minimum wage. — AP
Unemployment and jobs growth in South Korea haven’t looked so bad since the wake of the global financial crisis, undermining President Moon Jae-in’s economic agenda.
Data released Wednesday show the unemployment rate jumping to 4.2 percent, the highest since early 2010, and much greater than any economists forecast. Jobs growth slumped to just 3,000 last month, also the worst figure in more than eight years.
Moon, who came into office pledging to create jobs and raise incomes for regular workers, has seen his popularity slide amid criticism that he’s hurting employment by aggressively increasing the minimum wage.
While pay hikes planned for this year and 2019 are here to stay, Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon said the government would consider adjusting some policies.
He conceded that the jobs market wouldn’t improve much anytime soon.
Disappearing Jobs Growth
: South Korea added just 3,000 jobs in August, the least since 2010
Source: Statistics Korea
Moon’s administration points to the fallout from corporate restructuring and the shrinking working-age population as the source of the problems in the labour market. Businesses counter that hiking the minimum wage 16% this year, with another bump of almost 11% to come next year, has made job layoffs inevitable.
Small business owners in particular, from convenience stores to fast-food franchises, have shed workers.
Adding to the economic unease in South Korea is the risk that US President Donald Trump may hit car exporters with auto tariffs, even after Seoul agreed to renegotiate its trade deal with the US.
Unemployment Spike
South Korea's unemployment rate in August reached the highest since 2010
Source: Statistics Korea
South Korean bonds climbed and the won fell after jobs figures, which appeared to squash any near-term prospect of the central bank raising interest rates.
The finance minister said economic policies that are geared toward wage-based growth are moving in the “right direction”. Yet the government also acknowledged the need for more communication and market analysis in order to gain trust from companies and the people, he said.
The presidential office described the recent increase in unemployment as inevitable pain that accompanies a change in the structure of the economy, Yonhap News reported.
Like many other countries, South Korea is experiencing a widening gap between the rich and the poor. It’s confounding policy makers and exacerbating political divisions. — Bloomberg
Getting Richer. Getting Poorer
Change in income for the most wealthy and the least wealthy households
Source: Statistics Korea. Quarterly figures, measures versus year earlier
PETALING JAYA: Allowing a larger fiscal deficit and running the risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade in 2019 could cause balance of payments stress, given Malaysia’s high short-term external debts and low foreign exchange (forex) reserves, said Nomura.
Following the reversal of fiscal reforms like goods and services tax (GST) and the removal of fuel subsidies, the new government now faces the tough choice of either cutting spending at the cost of growth, or allowing a larger fiscal deficit and the risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade in 2019.
According to a Nomura global research report, Malaysia’s Damocles score in July 2018 was 86.9, below the 100 threshold.
The Damocles index by Nomura summarises macroeconomic and financial variables into a single measure to assess an economy’s vulnerability to a currency crisis.
The oil price slump of 2014 to 2016 was a major shock for Malaysia, one of the few net-oil and gas exporters in Asia.
“While Bank Negara initially expanded forex reserves to defend the ringgit, it eventually allowed a sharp depreciation in 2015 which boosted export competitiveness.
“Malaysia has proved resilient and its current account remained in surplus, benefiting from a diversified economy and fiscal reforms,” said Nomura.
Three countries in the region, namely, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, have a Damocles score of zero, while Vietnam has a moderate Damocles score of 35.
The Bank of Thailand is signalling policy normalisation to build policy space and reduce financial stability risks following a prolonged period of exceptionally low interest rates. This is as headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation returned to within the 1% to 4% inflation target and economy growing at potential.
Thailand’s current account surplus as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) has been sizeable since 2015, driven by weak domestic demand and, more recently, growing tourism revenues as well as an export recovery.
“Over this period, forex reserves rose sharply, and they are now at very favourable adequacy levels relative to both imports and short-term external debts.
“The fiscal deficit is expected to widen slightly in 2018, as the government increases spending to support populist policies targeting low-income earners, in the run-up to the election in early 2019,” said Nomura, adding that real interest rates are falling gradually and remain marginally positive, as inflationary pressures have been stubbornly weak.
Over in Indonesia, a negative terms-of-trade shock in 2014 raised the Damocles score in 2014 to 2016, but it has fallen back to zero due to Bank Indonesia’s build-up of forex reserve buffers and government reforms that improved foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.
While depreciation pressures have risen again in 2018, BI has acted decisively with 125 basis points in policy rate hikes to date.
“We expect another 25 basis points, with the risk of more.
“Bank Indonesia maintains a flexible forex regime and a dual-intervention framework in forex and bond markets, as well as introduced macro-prudential measures, like requiring residents to hedge external exposure,” said Nomura.
The research house added that Bank Indonesia has also strengthened policy coordination with the Finance Ministry, which is implementing policies to reduce the current account deficit, while prioritising a credible 2019 budget despite upcoming presidential elections.
Sword of Damocles hangs over Sri Lanka
PETALING JAYA: Sri Lanka is at risk of an exchange rate crisis mainly due to its still-weak fiscal finances and a fragile external position.
Sri Lanka charted the highest Damocles score of 175, among 30 emerging market (EM) economies.
The Damocles index by Nomura summarises macroeconomic and financial variables into a single measure to assess an economy’s vulnerability to a currency crisis.
A score above 100 suggests a country is vulnerable to an exchange rate crisis in the next 12 months, while a reading above 150 signals that a crisis could erupt at any time.
Sri Lanka has large refinancing needs, with foreign exchange (forex) reserves of less than five months of import cover and high short-term external debt of US$ 7.5bil.
“Political stability also remains an issue, as recent resignations have weakened the government (its term ends mid-2020) and despite retaining a simple majority, complicates the task of continuing to implement International Monetary Fund (IMF)-induced reforms.
“However, without IMF support, the risk of a currency crisis would be higher,” said Nomura in its global research report.
Meanwhile, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine are currently vulnerable to an exchange rate crisis, having Damocles scores of more than 100.
“Based on our definition, Argentina and Turkey are experiencing currency crises, while Argentina, Egypt, Sri Lanka and Ukraine have turned to the IMF for assistance, leaving Pakistan and South Africa as the standouts.
“As investors focus more on risk, it is important not to lump all EMs together as one homogeneous group; Damocles highlights a long list of countries with very low risk of currency crises,” said Nomura.
Eight countries, namely, Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, Philippines, Russia and Thailand, have Damocles scores of zero.
It is notable that China’s Damocles index has maintained since dropping to 36.9 in late 2017 from 62.4 in October 2017.
The index far below the 100 threshold suggests that the risk of an exchange rate crisis in China is limited.
Nomura concurred that China’s balance of payment position remains healthy, given it has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves at US$3.1 trillion, as of July 2018.
“However, we highlight that its pockets are not as deep as they once were, given that current account deficits at minus 0.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of 2018 may occur more frequently, net direct investment inflows may moderate further, and external debt has risen significantly.
“Moreover, we see domestic challenges from weakening aggregate demand and other fundamental problems, and external risks from the escalation in China-US trade tensions and trade protectionism,” said Nomura.
As for India, its Damocles score has fallen to 25 in the third quarter of 2018, from 56 during 2012 to 2013.
India’s most recent currency crisis occurred in 2013 and was due to weak domestic macro fundamentals and worsening external funding conditions. Since then, consumer price index (CPI) inflation has moderated to about 4.5% in 2018 from 9.7% in 2012, as has the current account deficit at an estimated -2.5% of GDP, compared to minus 5% in 2012. Furthermore, India’s central bank has a sufficient forex reserve buffer of 9.3 months of import cover versus 6.4 in 2012.
“However, given India runs a current account deficit, it remains vulnerable to bouts of global risk aversion. Higher oil prices and portfolio outflows are its key external vulnerabilities.
“Aside from these, the key risks stem from the government turning more populist ahead of the 2019 general elections (worsening domestic fundamentals) and a sharper-than-expected domestic growth slowdown (triggering equity outflows),” said Nomura.
The Damocles index comprises eight indicators that are found to be the best predictors of exchange rate crises in the 30-country sample, in which there have been 54 crises since 1996. It includes five single indicators which are import cover, short-term external debt or exports, forex reserves or short-term external debt, broad money or forex reserves and real short-term interest rate.
On the other hand, the three joint indicators are non-foreign direct investment (FDI) gross inflows of one-year and three-year, fiscal and current account, as well as current account and real effective exchange rate deviation. To date, Damocles has correctly signalled 67% of the past 54 crises in Nomura’s sample, including the Asian financial crisis (1997 to 1998), Russian financial crisis (1998) and the 2018 EM currency crises in Argentina and Turkey.
“The advantage of Damocles lies in its objective nature in letting the data speak, not clouded by conventional misperceptions or biases based on past experiences. While the results achieved are encouraging, but given the inherent limitations of any early warning system, it would be foolish to make any exaggerated claims.
“For instance, Brazil’s Damocles score of zero implies very low external vulnerability; yet the Brazilian real (BRL) has depreciated more than 10% in August alone due to an uncertain presidential election outlook,” said Nomura. - The Star
"It would not be profitable to build the Focus Active in the U.S. given an expected annual sales volume of fewer than 50,000 units," automaker Ford Motor Company said in a statement on Sunday.
US President Donald Trump tweeted earlier on Sunday that "'Ford has abruptly killed a plan to sell a Chinese-made small vehicle in the US because of the prospect of higher US Tariffs.' CNBC. This is just the beginning. This car can now be built in the USA and Ford will pay no tariffs!" Ford quickly clarified the facts, evidently rebuffing Trump's tweet.
Likewise, tech giant Apple Inc. wrote a letter to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, saying that a proposed 25 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports would cover a "wide range of Apple products."
In another tweet, Trump told Apple to make their products in the US instead of China. Apple hasn't responded.
According to the US media, the price of iPhone may increase to $2,000 if the company does as told.
The multinational companies that produce automobile and mobile phones have different manufacturing and sales layouts. Car manufacturers tend to produce their products where they are sold, while mobile phone manufacturers optimize their production chain costs worldwide. That's the natural law of economic globalization which can't be easily changed by a country's government.
The White House lacks understanding of the global production and value chains. "Make your products in the United States instead of China" seems naive. Instead of coercing companies to follow demands, imposing tariffs will only scare them off.
Simply making US companies produce in the US can't deal with the complicated global industry today. We have also learnt from history that neither side will gain in a trade war.
China is the world's largest automobile and mobile phone market. Setting tariff barriers between Beijing and Washington won't make US companies give up on China for the sake of their own country. As long as China doesn't make things hard for US companies, it's unavoidable that they will place production operations in China. The Chinese market can help them make money, but the White House can't.
Most American high-tech companies will face difficulties if they leave China. The larger the market is, the higher return the companies will get from their research and development. High-tech companies, if they can't grow to be giant, don't usually survive for long, and it would be fatal for many of them to lose the Chinese market.
There hasn't been a previous US government that dares to instruct multinational companies in production layouts, and the current administration has overestimated its executive power. The global industrial chain today is formed by market rules established over decades and can't be easily changed by one government.
It would be the White House's dream to expect that the US is not only the world's technology and financial center, but also the world's factory that sells its products globally. If the US doesn't want to wake up from this dream, then the outside world has to step in and rouse Washington.
China should give up the illusion of persuading Australia
to stop containing China together with the US. Instead Beijing should
let Canberra calm down and rethink.
The Chinese people must cherish what the country has
earned them. China has no alternative but to continue to learn how to
deal with the world in the 21st century.
The "five-no" and "four-can't" are truly inspiring. They
correct the concepts of rights and point to the justice of the day.
President Xi's points will definitely leave a deep mark on the history
of relations between the African continent and China, and the entire
world.
The possibility of the West leading the collaboration
with the continent again always exists as long as they do not get their
heads jammed by a geopolitical mind-set.
The US, South Korea and Japan must clarify what exactly
they want on the Korean Peninsula. They cannot have everything,
especially things that contradict each other. If the US wishes for
denuclearization and peace on the peninsula, it would see the value of
China-North Korea ties and support them.
Brothers Hway (left) and Tze-Co say networking will be a big part of the Blocfest conference. — ART CHEN/The Star
Educate yourself on blockchain technology which is transforming businesses around the globe.
What began as an experiment in buying Bitcoin for a holiday led two brothers to explore blockchain technology and eventually organise a blockchain conference – Blocfest 2018 – which will feature more than 30 international speakers.
Gwei Tze-Co, 49, started investing in Bitcoin four years ago, ahead of a trip to Brazil to attend the 2014 World Cup.
“I was planning to go to Argentina after the World Cup and read that the currency situation was so bad there that you could use Bitcoin instead. I bought some but didn’t end up using it,” he says.
But that initial investment got him hooked on blockchain and cryptocurrency, especially Ethereum.
Meanwhile, Gwei Hway, 43, who is a programmer and has worked in tech firms for the last 20 years, was drawn to blockchain and cryptocurrency because of his brother’s fascination for them.
Tze-Co says in Malaysia blockchain is still an emerging technology though a few good projects by local founders have been launched.
“However, lots of people just use blockchain and cryptocurrency for hype. To put it bluntly, there’s a lot of scams and many Malaysians are falling for them,” he says.
He says that a conference with legitimate speakers sharing their experience could go a long way in educating people on how blockchain can make a difference in their businesses.
He adds that once a person better understands blockchain technology and especially how it’s used in business, it will be easier for him or her to identify the fake ones.
This is one of the reasons the brothers are organising Blocfest through their company, Blockchain Asia Sdn Bhd, which is scheduled to take place at the Shangri-La Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, on Sept 26 and 27.
The two-day conference will focus on the potential of blockchain technology in South-East Asia and feature speakers from various backgrounds, including blockchain entrepreneurs, developers, global investors, academics and enthusiasts.
Discussions at the conference will be divided into three streams – Regulatory, Academic and Enterprise.
Regulatory will help you understand the current regulatory landscape and what’s in store in the future for blockchain; Academy will tackle academic concepts and their impact on blockchain; and Enterprise will highlight technological aspects of blockchain and potential use-case scenarios.
Hway expects half the attendees to come from enterprises which aren’t too familiar with blockchain technology but are exploring how it could be relevant to them, while the remaining will be investors, academics and experts in the field.
“Networking is definitely a big part of the conference, and as many solution providers will be present in the exhibition halls, we expect a lot of companies to ink deals or find partnerships,” he says.
Joining the conversation will be regulators from countries that have begun to explore the issue, including Taiwanese Member of Parliament Jason Hsu, better known as the Crypto Congressman due to his staunch support for the technology, and a representative from the Philippines’ Cagayan Economic Zone Authority which spearheads the country’s financial technology efforts.
Tze-Co says there have been talks to get Malaysian regulators to participate and share their thoughts on the laws required to facilitate blockchain in Malaysia but the discussion is ongoing.
Other key speakers that will be at Blocfest are cryptofinance platform Fusion’s founder Dejun Qian, blockchain veteran and ProximaX Ltd founder Lon Wong, anti-counterfeit system Wabi’s CEO Alexander Busarov, and dating marketplace Viola.AI’s CEO Violet Lim.
In addition to Blocfest, attendees can also take part in several other events during the KL Blockchain Week, which will be held between Sept 24 and 27, including a hackathon.
Those interested in attending Blocfest can get 40% off VIP tickets priced at US$450 (RM1,860) or normal tickets priced at US$375 (RM1,550) by keying in the promo code BLOC40D during checkout but this offer is only available for a limited time. Visit www.blocfest.asia for more information.
THE financial crisis affecting developing countries arrived in full-scale fashion in our region last week when the Indonesian economy experienced shocks reminiscent of the Asian crisis 20 years ago.
With the crisis coming so close to home, it is time to contemplate what may unfold in the near future and list measures to respond to each scenario, so that we are not taken by surprise.
The agreement reached with Singapore to postpone construction of the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail (HSR) project until end-May 2020 (with Malaysia paying S$15mil [RM45.1mil] in cost) was an achievement. It allows us a gap of two years before having to meet the mega project’s large expenses.
The next couple of years will be crucial, as the country will be in the midst of managing the “perfect storm” of servicing the trillion-ringgit government debt and preventing the government deficit from ballooning, while facing the challenges of the emerging global financial crisis.
In this tight situation, every billion ringgit counts; indeed every single ringgit counts.
As more discoveries are made of missing money, whether due to the 1MDB scandal or unpaid tax refunds, there is increasing pressure to save money and cut costs to avoid wider deficits.
So the HSR’s two-year deferment helps a lot. It may be like kicking the can down the street, but hopefully, the situation will improve by the end of the two years to allow the can to be picked up, especially if during the period, ways are found to cut the overall cost of the project.
Other projects too have to be scrutinised. Besides the East Coast Rail Link and Trans Sabah gas pipeline projects, there are many other projects whose costs have to be examined, and whose implementation can be postponed or cancelled.
Besides the scourge of overpricing and kickbacks, there is the over-riding concern that a financial crisis has to be averted.
Indonesia’s Energy Minister last week announced that energy projects worth US$25bil (RM103.64bil) and representing half of President Joko Widodo’s grand electricity programme, would be postponed or restructured. This is to save US$8bil (RM33.1bil) to US$10bil (rm41.45bil) on imports for the projects.
Indonesia is also raising tariffs to 10% on over 1,000 goods in a move to reduce the import bill.
These are some measures the country is forced to take as its economy enters full crisis mode. It could even face a meltdown of the 1998-99 scale. The rupiah fell to almost 15,000 per US dollar, the lowest point since the 1998 crisis.
Indonesia is vulnerable to a financial crisis due to its dual deficits (in the current account and government budget), large external debt and high foreign ownership of equity and government bonds.
Indonesia is caught in a vicious cycle, which is typical when financially liberalised countries follow orthodox fire-fighting policies. When the markets perceive that the external reserves could be insufficient to pay for imports, service debts and absorb potential capital outflows, the currency depreciates.
The perception sparks a self-fulfilling prophecy. The fall in currency makes it more difficult for the government and companies to service foreign loans, and also prompts investors to pull out their money.
In such a situation, the government raises the interest rate to incentivise investors to retain their money in the country. Indonesian interest rates have risen by 1.25 percentage points since May.
However, the side effect is that homebuyers and companies find it more difficult to service their mortgage and business loans. Credit slows down, and so does the economy. This in turn causes the currency to drop further, prompting more rounds of interest rate increases, which lead to loan defaults and bankruptcies.
The economy goes into recession, leading to more capital outflows, including by local people. The currency drops again, recession deepens, and the cycle continues.
Indonesia is still at the start of this cycle. Hopefully it will find the policy tools, including unorthodox ones that work, to avoid a long stay in the spiral. But Indonesia is by no means alone. Argentina and Turkey are deep in their crises, and more and more countries are suffering the contagion effect, including South Africa, India, Iran and the Philippines.
Following the 2008-09 global financial crisis that especially hit the United States and Europe, many hundreds of billions of dollars rushed to emerging markets, including Malaysia, in search of higher yields. The liquidity was created by quantitative easing (government pumping money into the banking system) and low interest rates in the US and Europe.
Now the funds are leaving the emerging economies and returning to the US. This is due to the US policy reversing to quantitative tightening, the rise in its interest rates, and fears of an emerging market crisis and a worsening trade war.
Developing countries vulnerable to currency decline, a pull-out of funds and a crisis are those with significant current account deficits, government budget deficits and debts; low foreign reserves; large external debt; and high foreign ownership of local bonds and equities.
Malaysia is so far safe but it is wise not to be complacent. It is not easy to escape contagion once it spreads.
A few warning signs have appeared, such as a narrowing of the current account surplus and significant portfolio investment outflows (both in the second quarter), and a weakening of the ringgit, besides the larger than previously reported government debt and the need to prevent the budget deficit from increasing.
The old Scout motto, “Be Prepared”, comes in handy at times like this. It is good to prepare now for any eventuality, so as to avoid being caught by surprise.
We can do it: When faced with the challenges
of being truly Malaysian, we should not be as timid as Game of Thrones
Theon Greyjoy (left) waiting for sausages to be served.
I SPEAK my mind. I don’t care what you think of me or what I say. I care that I move people, and hopefully for the best. You cannot sugar-coat truth, truth must be spoken loud and clear if we want to make a difference. Speak Out.
A great nation is one where the majority looks at its marginalised minorities with compassion and empathy, and ensures their wellbeing is taken care of, and the weak among us are always protected. A great society ensures that the disadvantaged are helped in the best way such that opportunities do not pass them by.
Malaysia in this sense is a real paradox.
It has a majority that is politically powerful and yet economically weak and uncompetitive. The Malays (and to some extent our bumiputras overall) by and large have been told over decades that they are superior but are unable to compete and therefore needed every advantage and protection by their political leaders, their clerics, the state, the monarchs and every other self-proclaimed champion under the sun.
Hence, we create a supremacist complex, subconscious in most and overt in some, but one with a dependency syndrome.
The minority Chinese and Indians are economically strong, competitive and over the years, in the absence of a reliance on government assistance, has also become urbane and progressive in outlook.
Hey! Do you know the other minority that to a certain extent fit this category? The progressive Malay liberals.
That despised minority among the majority. What do all these people have in common? When faced with the challenges of being truly Malaysian, they are as timid as a gang of Theon Greyjoys waiting for sausages to be served. The majority of them are so scared to speak out or come out. Witness the Bersih rallies, the numbers are way below the actual support.
I have news for all you Theons, we can do it. You’ve proven it on May 9. You all came out. Don’t stop there. It’s time all of us come together to change our nation to be truly progressive, modern and, sooner rather than later, join the ranks of developed nations.
To do that we must be Malaysian first – without fear or favour. Never again allow an injustice perpetrated upon your fellow Malaysians be left unquestioned and unanswered.
Never again allow that little voice that says “let’s not court trouble”, or those that shout at you “you are not of the religion, do not interfere” stop you.
Humanity knows no race, no religion nor does it care what your supposed station in life is. We are all Malaysians. If we want to be equal we have to behave as equals, until the powers that be capitulate.
If we see our race denigrating or abusing the other, speak up and condemn it. If we see another race doing it to their own, speak up as well.
If we see another people of a different religion abusing and persecuting their own kind, speak up. They are your fellow Malaysians. There is no justification in persecuting our fellow Malaysians.
Let me give you an example.
If someone proposes to impose penalties upon Malaysian Muslims that only the Muslims in our nation will be subjected to for the same crime, we must all speak up and oppose it. This is not about religion. It is about fairness to our fellow citizens.
Being a Malaysian means speaking up on behalf of every one of our countrymen. Standing up to oppression and for justice for all. None of us can or should be shut up for one reason or another when it comes to what happens in Malaysia and to Malaysians. We are all equal. We need to walk this talk until we change the environment by which discourse takes place in this country.
There will be many detractors and there will be many people who will mine the well of extremism to stop us. We should not be cowed by them because that is what they want of us. They have been scaring us all to compliance all these years.
Right-thinking Malaysians must demand that our elected leaders step up and lead, and not follow the herd. The herd follow the shepherd, not the other way around. When I hear characters say “we must be sensitive to the feelings of the majority”, I know these are no leaders.
These are mere political hacks, characters who are interested in the jockeying of position and personal victory, rather than one willing to risk his or her popularity to stand by the courage of their convictions and chart the destiny of the nation and its people. More than likely such people do not even have any convictions.
This nation needs leaders. We are at crossroads in our history. I believe the next three years will determine whether we will sink back into the old politics of protecting and championing race and religion, or we will emerge as a confident nation of equals ready to bring our collective strength to take on the world on our own terms. The result will be determined by us Malaysians speaking out and standing up to and with our fellow countrymen, and insisting that our “leaders” lead.
This is what I intend to continue to do.
The fundamental need in Malaysian education reform
THE Science and Technology Human Capital Report and Science Outlook 2015 by Akademi Science Malaysia show that we may soon have a serious shortage in science-related fields.
It seems more students are opting out of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) fields at secondary and tertiary levels.
Deputy Women, Family and Community Development Minister, Hannah Yeoh – quoting the National Council of Science, Research and Development which stated that the country needed about 500,000 scientists and engineers by 2030 – pointed out that we have only 70,000 registered engineers, seven times lower than the number required.
Meanwhile, the Education Ministry proposed black shoes, special number plates and a manual for noble and religious values to be read out at assemblies.
What is going on here? Why is there this serious disconnect between what the nation needs and what the so-called custodian and driver of the nation’s education machinery?
I think it’s time to talk about the fundamental elephant in the room that no one wants to talk about when it comes to education reform in Malaysia – the number of hours dedicated to religion (including its related subjects) and the influence of religion in Malaysian schools.
With 60% of our population being Malay-Muslims, what and how their children are educated from young is a concern to all Malaysians.
They are the backbone of the nation’s future. Even a cursory look at the hours spent by these children in religious classes should alarm everyone, what more in the government’s Sekolah Agama (religious schools).
Equally of concern, in Sekolah Kebangsaan (national schools), non-Muslim children would be attending alternative subjects that may not enhance their educational value, especially in Science, at the times Malay children attend their religious classes.
Educating children is a zero-sum game. There are only so many hours in a day. Children cannot be going to classes all day long.
They also need time for games and sports and other extracurricular activities that have nothing to do with classroom learning but more to do with expanding their experience of life, physical exertion and just relaxing.
Therefore, their “classroom time” is finite and each subject accommodated means another will have less of it.
A typical Malay-Muslim child in Year One at national school undergoes approximately four hours per week of religious studies (including related subjects such as Tasmik or Quran reading).
Another hour and a half per week go to Bahasa Arab.
Science, on the other hand, is only accorded an hour and a half per week. A Year Six pupil gets about four hours of religion and related subjects, with one hour of Arabic per week. Science gets two hours per week.
Let’s be honest.
The only reason for Arabic being taught is due to its affiliation to the religion, otherwise the next language a Malay child should be learning is either Chinese, Tamil or even Spanish, the next most spoken language after English.
So basically from Year 1 to Year 6, the ratio is approximately on average two hours of Science versus five hours of religion per week.
That is the formative years of our children. What are we doing to our children? This is appalling.
We are basically indoctrinating our children in religion and neglecting basic sciences that will make them critical thinkers and progressive individual with real foundation.
In the same instance, our non-Malay children also are disadvantaged because they are not taught those sciences at the time Malay children are in their religious classes.
Let’s get it clear.
The function of education is learning to think critically.
The function of religious studies is indoctrination to be obedient followers. We are regressing our Malay children and failing our Malaysian children overall.
Again, let us be honest. Our national education system today, save the vernacular schools, both from an administrative and teaching standpoints are overwhelmingly Malay.
And the Malay-centric system is overwhelmingly religious.
Our children are taught overtly and subliminally that being the “correct” Muslims is the only option.
The authoritative teacher and peer pressure brought upon the Muslim child today is overwhelming at school.
It is a norm to find daughters coming home in tears being bullied as a result of their or their parents’ outward appearance, especially mothers, that do not conform to religious dogma.
The bullies in most circumstances are the Malay teachers themselves. As such, both parents and children conform to avoid the oppressive peer and teaching pressure.
In such an environment, the dichotomy between Muslim and non-Muslim children becomes pronounced.
Is it any wonder that our society right from school to their adulthood has become divided and suspicious, and in a significant portion, easily inflamed with hatred?
Today, race is not the main driver of such divisiveness, it is the religious influence over society starting from the schools.
We need to confront this issue head-on and not be cowed by the label of “sensitivity”.
It is the sensitivity of not talking and confronting these issues that has made the bad become even worse. One cannot solve a problem if one cannot acknowledge and confront their existence in an honest manner.
We need honest conversations and political will from the Education Ministry to overcome this seemingly intractable virus that has infected our whole education system and administrative body.
In this aspect, I have not even touched about the watered-down content or substance of the school subjects, especially Science and History, as a result of the religious influence within our education system.
That will be for another day.
What we have is an almost unique Malaysian national education problem found nowhere else in a functioning democracy.
The result of at least 30 years of Barisan Nasional and PAS politics of using religion to buy the votes of the Malay electorate.
We require a head-on examination of the philosophy of Malaysian education which is today religious-centric instead of education-centric and STEM-centric as would be required by a 21st century modern nation that wants to be developed.
It also requires a total re-education of our teaching human resources – from one that has been religiously indoctrinated to one that will be accepting of all religious and non-religious peoples and societies as being equally good.
One where the teachers are focused on STEM education and ensuring critical thinking rather than being obsessed with religious pre-occupation of any sorts when they are in the national schools educating our children.
One where rational critical thought is the inspiration for good values rather than one that derives on religious books and doctrines as the minister has instead suggested.
We need to demand this of our Government, from our educators and our education system.
If these two fundamental aspects of our basic primary education cannot be rectified – a major increase in teaching/learning time for the sciences and a significant reduction in religious indoctrination and influence in national education – no amount of other esoteric and sophisticated policies and plans would be of any worth.
KUALA LUMPUR: Former Deputy Prime Minister Tun Musa Hitam said
Malaysia’s Vision 2020 objective was “falling apart” with “alarming
speed”, and he blames Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad for it.
In his keynote speech at an event to mark the sixth anniversary of the
Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas), Musa said this was
because the former premier did not train leaders but instead chose to
retain and train followers instead.
“It is ironic that Dr Mahathir’s vision is now certain to fail because of Dr Mahathir himself.
