The new Cold War heats up

 Insightful views: Kishore giving his assessment on the US-China rivalry during his lecture in Kuala Lumpur. -

The new Cold War heats up

International relations expert Kishore Mahbubani has interesting views on US-China rivalry and the role Asean could play.

IT’S not every day that one gets to hear directly from Prof Kishore Mahbubani, one of the best thinkers on international relations.

In fact, it had taken the organiser, the Malaysian Institute of Management, over two years to invite the Singaporean diplomat, academician and best-selling author to Kuala Lumpur.

Those of us who turned up for his lecture on Tuesday evening wanted to hear his assessment of the United States-China rivalry, which is certain to get worse in the coming years.

Kishore is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asian Research Institute, National University of Singapore, and has had two notable careers – 33 years in diplomacy and 15 years in academia.

He was the founding dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and spent over 10 years as Singapore’s ambassador to the United Nations.

He has authored several books, including best-sellers such as Can Asians Think? and Has The West Lost It?.His insightful views on the US-China geopolitical rivalry have grabbed the attention of many.

Gloomy as it may be, it is certain and unavoidable – in Kishore’s own words – that the rivalry will worsen as the Chinese push to challenge the United States for dominance.

For us living in the Asean region, especially Malaysians, it is more troubling as the power play is taking place in our backyard, the South China Sea, while Taiwan is merely about four hours away by flight.

Kishore predicts the contest, if not already a feud, will accelerate in the next 10 years and he doesn’t see it quietening down.

The scenario is unprecedented as for the first time in human history, these two superpowers are colliding.

Driven by what he describes as structural forces, he sees China as the “No. 2 that is about to take over as No. 1 and the US will push down China” at all costs as the latter does not see itself losing its pole position.

“They should learn from the Malaysian monarchy (where the reigning King) steps down every five years,’’ he joked.

He said in his highly provocative titled book Has China Won? that it hasn’t helped that the many US policymakers who will drive this geopolitical contest are “possessed by a psychology that sees all competition among great powers as a zero-sum game”.

“Hence, if China steps up its naval deployments in the South China Sea, the US Navy will see it as a loss and step up its presence in the region,” he said.

There is much insecurity on the part of the United States as “it is far from certain that America will win the contest as China has as good a chance as America of emerging as the dominant influence in the world”.

“In fact, many thoughtful leaders and observers in strategically sensitive countries around the world have begun making preparations for a world where China may become number one,” said Kishore.

He said it was an error of perception for America to view the CCP as a Chinese Communist Party embedded in communist roots, when in the eyes of Asian observers, the CCP actually functions as the “Chinese Civilisation Party” with its soul rooted in Chinese civilisation.

But Kishore has some advice for China – never underestimate the United States.

It’s a giant that has woken up and it has won the narrative, with the support of a powerful international media, that it is a contest between a democracy and an authoritarian government.

“It has been a strategic mistake for American thinkers to take success for granted, it would be an equally colossal strategic mistake for China to assume the same,” he said.

Painting the Chinese as demonic has been an easy selling point to the American public, most of whom have never travelled out of their country, added Kishore, saying in his book that it will be easier “for Americans to persist in the belief that they would eventually triumph against China, no matter the odds”.

Both the Republicans and Democrats have adopted the same tone and strategy of containing China.

So, it doesn’t matter who the next US President is although it got worse under President Donald Trump. It has simply become a bipartisan policy.

The rest of the world, especially Asean, will be affected by this great power play. No one will be spared as pressure will be applied to countries to take sides.

Even a simple acquisition of technology, such as using Huawei’s applications, has turned complicated.

Kishore shared an anecdote of how a British top official had told him that it would use Huawei as security clearance, and with a stiff upper lip, said there was no reason for it to submit to US pressure.

But just months later, the United Kingdom “crumbled” to US pressure and abandoned Huawei.

He feared that Taiwan would be a more sensitive issue than the South China Sea as it benefits the United States and China to keep the international waterways safe for freedom of navigation.

But Taiwan is a more potential flash point. It is the red line that no one should cross, and most Asians know it and “they shut up”, he said, advising Asian countries to continue with this approach.

The Chinese see Taiwan as a renegade province that belongs to China and do not tolerate any moves to push for independence. Most countries adopt a One China policy and have no diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Kishore said for a long time, the United States stayed away from the Taiwan issue, but now it has been broached and “it is not rational, it’s dangerous and emotional”.

But he said Asean could play an influential role to speak up for moderate measures to initiate dialogues between the United States and China and to help reduce tensions that could contribute to possibilities of a war.

He acknowledged that Asean may be “weak and chaotic”, but paradoxically, no one sees the grouping as a threat and its meetings were all attended by the powerful nations.

“Everyone loves Asean. It has convening abilities,” he said, adding that both China and the United States had invested huge amounts there compared to other regions of the world.

China has been the largest market for Asean exports for the past 12 years and Malaysia’s number one trading partner for the past 15 consecutive years, while Asean countries collectively are the United States’ fourth largest trading partner.

Together, they represent a market with a gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$3 trillion (RM13.38 trillion). US goods and services traded with Asean totalled an estimated US$362.2bil (RM1.62 trillion) in 2020.

Kishore said while the US-China contest may be a gloomy topic, there is also a positive aspect as both sides will woo support and attention, adding that it was good to be courted but reaffirmed that Asean members must stay out of the feud.

“It is said that when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled, but let’s not forget that when elephants make love, it tramples too,’’ he said in jest.

Talk is better than war and for a start, the rhetoric can be lowered down. A deeper rationality is needed and surely, there is a need to accept that the world has changed.

A painful and unnecessary clash needs to be avoided. The journey for both sides to work together has to start soon.

- Wong Chun Wai

Wong Chun Wai began his career as a journalist in Penang, and has served The Star for over 35 years in various capacities and roles. He is now group editorial and corporate affairs adviser to the group, after having served as group managing director/chief executive officer. On The Beat made its debut on Feb 23 1997 and Chun Wai has penned the column weekly without a break, except for the occasional press holiday when the paper was not published. In May 2011, a compilation of selected articles of On The Beat was published as a book and launched in conjunction with his 50th birthday. Chun Wai also comments on current issues in The Star.

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President Xi: Russia ties ensure peace; foreign debut illuminates China's 'world dream'

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan arrive in Moscow



Freshly elected President Xi Jinping chose the Russian capital as the first foreign city he will visit as China's head of state, as Moscow and Beijing move toward a full-fledged partnership for the next decade.

On the global arena, both Russia and China have a similar approach, and Jinping's visit has been interpreted as a sign that the new Chinese administration is keen to re-inforce ties with Russia.

In the past, the two countries had a difficult and politically ambiguous relationship and were once Cold War rivals but their international interests are becoming more aligned.

The two countries have often jointly used their veto powers at the United Nationa Security Council, most recently with issues related to the Middle East, where they have blocked Western-backed measures regarding the Syrian conflict.

China and Russia also share a sizeable border and have tried to bolster their regional clout as a counterweight to a United States that is 'pivoting' towards Asia.

And as well as being permanent members of the Security Council, the two countries have worked shoulder-to-shoulder on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the so-called G20.

President Xi Jinping will also be talking trade on his visit in Moscow. The two countries have burgeoning business interests.

Bilateral trade has more than doubled in the last five years and reached $83bn in 2012 but the volume of trade is still low compared to their other trade partners. It is five times smaller than Russia's trade with the European Union, and also far smaller than China's trade with the United States; but the trade in energy is seen as a growth market for the two countries.

Russia is of course the world's largest energy producer and China the biggest consumer. The two countries are in discussion about a gas pipeline that could eventually deliver 38bn cubic metres of Russian gas a year to China

So, how significant is this visit? Will it shape a new relationship between Moscow and Beijing?

To discuss this Inside Story, with presenter Hazem Sika, is joined by guests: Victor Gao, the director of China National Association of International Studies, who was also a former China policy advisor; Dimitry Babich, a political analyst at Russia Profile magazine; and Roderic Wye, a China analyst at Chatham House and senior fellow with the China Policy Institute at Nottingham University.

"Obviously there is a lot of substance [in the meeting] about the energy relationship, there are big issues to talk about on the international stage - not least, North Korea and the problems there - but also it is an important symbol to show for both Russia and China that they have independent foreign policies ... and that they are not beholden to the United States in any particular way."

Source:Al Jazeera - Roderic Wye, China analyst at Chatham House

 Xi's foreign debut illuminates China's "world dream"
 
On Friday, Chinese President Xi Jinping embarked on his first overseas trip since taking office last week, and experts here believe the trip will clarify Xi's recent references to China's "world dream."

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, said, "The trip will reveal some important features of Xi's concept of world order."

"From the destinations of Xi's first foreign trip, we can tell that China is committed to promoting democratization in international relations as well as a more just and reasonable international order and system," he said.

In a joint interview on Tuesday with reporters from BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), Xi said China hopes that countries and cultures around the world will carry out exchanges on equal footing, learn from each other and achieve common progress.

He also voiced his hope that all countries will make joint efforts to build a harmonious world featuring enduring peace and common prosperity.

"This is Xi's version of China's 'world dream,'" Shi said.

"It is in line with the common aspirations of people from different countries and closely related to the 'Chinese dream' put forward by Xi," he said.

Pursuing the "Chinese dream" of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is conducive to realizing the "world dream," and if the "world dream" comes true, it could offer a sound external environment for the country to achieve the "Chinese dream," Shi said.

NEW TYPE OF INTER-POWER TIES

Based on Xi's first foreign trip and his interactions with other foreign leaders in the past week, analysts believe China is committed to developing a new type of "inter-power relations" in an all-around and open way, with hopes of breaking the zero-sum theory by promoting win-win cooperation.

Unlike past inter-power ties that have mainly targeted certain world powers, China now advocates a new type of cooperative relationship among all major powers, including leading powers among developing countries, said Ruan Zongze, deputy head of the China Institute of International Studies.

"We should adopt a new and open attitude toward all powers," he said, adding that the word "new" here means regarding the development and growth of other countries as an opportunity for one's own country.
"Only by doing this can state-to-state relations develop in a sound and sustainable way," he said.

In the joint interview Tuesday, Xi said his visit to Russia shows the "high level and special nature" of the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between the two countries.

Ruan said China's relations with Russia, the first leg of Xi's trip, have already reached a stage featuring a "high level of mutual trust," with both countries seeing each other's development as an opportunity.

"The zero-sum mentality, namely believing one party's success means the other's failure, has been one of the major factors hampering mutual trust and creating conflicts between major powers," he said.

Ruan pointed out that although Sino-Russian relations have seen marked progress in the past decade, this does not mean there are no problems in the bilateral relations.

"Both sides, however, agree not to let these differences restrain the development of bilateral relations," Ruan said.

MAIDEN TRIP NOT TARGETING A THIRD PARTY

Analysts here also point out that Xi's maiden overseas voyage as China's head of state is not of an exclusive nature and does not target a third party.

Zhang Yuanyuan, former Chinese ambassador to Belgium, said China's foreign policy is inclusive.

During his nine-day tour, Xi is scheduled to pay state visits to Russia, Tanzania, South Africa and the Republic of Congo. He is also expected to attend the fifth leaders' summit of BRICS countries in Durban, South Africa.

Zhang said the visits involve multiple factors, including a world power and a neighboring country, developing countries and multilateral cooperation, all of which have been among China's foreign policy priorities.

During the week since Xi was elected president, other Chinese leaders have received important guests and maintained contact with leaders from other countries.

In a phone conversation on March 14, Xi and U.S. President Barack Obama both promised to make efforts to achieve the goal of building a new type of inter-power relationship.

While meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew here on March 19, Xi urged the two nations to objectively view each other's development stages, respect each other's interests for further development and regard the other party's opportunities and challenges as its own.

Zhang pointed out that building a new type of inter-power relationship and exploring ways for the two major powers to get along with each other could straighten out Sino-U.S. relations and break the historical curse in which "conflicts between major powers are inevitable."

Meanwhile, Ruan Zongze dismissed concerns about Xi's itinerary, saying such concerns are "totally unnecessary."

"The reason for China to pursue the building of a new type of inter-power relationship is that it will not embark on the path of alliance," he said.

"The age of old-school alliances or jointly targeting a third party has long passed," Ruan said.- Xinhua