Market closes mixed, lower liners likely to hog the limelight

Regional bourses remained on a mixed trend with Japan's Nikkei 225 surging 292.93 points to 10,688.11 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 67.51 points to 23,331.09. Singapore's Straits Times eased one point to 3,223.80.

On the local front, the Industrial Index rose 19.44 points to 2,814.34, the Plantation Index improved 23.44 points to 8,255.19 and the Finance Index edged up 5.56 points to 15,341.36.

The FBM Emas Index increased 5.78 points to 11,485.90, the FBMT100 rose 2.71 points to 11,340.65, the FBM Mid 70 Index improved 17.33 points to 12,439.6 and the FBM Ace Index advanced 33.06 points to 4,259.77.

Total volume increased to 1.256 billion units valued at RM1.688bil compared with Thursday's close of 1.128 billion shares worth RM1.825bil. - Bernama

Lower liners likely to hog the limelight

REVIEW: Bursa Malaysia kicked off the last day of 2012 on the negative side, with the FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) shedding 2.93 points to 1,678.40, as profit-taking activity set in following a series of uptrend.

The overall market sentiment was pretty cautious, depressed by an extended fall in Wall Street overnight, as the White House and US lawmakers closed in on the “fiscal cliff” deadline with no deal in sight.

A pullback in most major Asian markets on profit-taking activity during the holiday season lull added to the downbeat note.

Given the dearth of fresh market-stimulating leads on the horizon, the local bourse succumbed to light liquidation to flirt in the red zones, but within a narrow range.

And that was the trend from the opening bell until the last minute, where buying in select heavyweights emerged suddenly to help the market reversed early weaknesses to end 2012 at a new record of 1,688.95, up 7.62 points on Monday.

World markets including Bursa Malaysia were shut on Tuesday for the New Year. While all of us were enjoying the holiday, optimism about the immediate direction of risky assets grew stronger, because a settlement in the “fiscal cliff” crisis in the US fuelled bullish sentiment across markets.

As expected, stocks in the region resumed business on solid grounds, with major Hang Seng Index leading the way, up nearly 3%.

Usually, the local bourse would mirror the offshore pattern, but in an unprecedented move, blue-chip counters reversed trend, as local institutional players opted to book profit from recent spikes.

Unlike the quality issues, non index-linked companies were mostly steady on greater retail participation and the two-tier market was clearly shown on the score card.

In spite of the FBM KLCI dropping 14.23 points to 1,673.72, winners beat decliners by 373 to 335 in mid-week.

Come Thursday, global equities sustained the upward thrust and the bulls on the domestic front took the opportunity to strike back.

Blue chips topped the gainers list while second and lower liners dominated the active page.

On the back of the better sentiment, the key index hit a new all-time high of 1,692.25, up 17.93 points that day.

It scaled another new peak of 1,699.68 in early session yesterday before retreating to close down 0.07 point to 1,692.58 owing to an apparent profit-taking activity.

Statistics: Week-on-week, the key index rose 11.25 points, or 0.7% to 1,692.58 yesterday, against 1,681.33 on Dec 28.

Total turnover for week ballooned to 4.093 billion units valued at RM6.020bil, compared with 2.920 billion shares worth RM3.941bil done previously.

Technical indicators: After triggering a sell at the overbought area in mid-week, the oscillator per cent K and the oscillator per cent D of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index weakened further to finish at the 66% and 73% respectively.

Likewise, the 14-day relative strength index retraced slightly from the top to end at the 69 points level.

In stark contrast, the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram continued to surge steadily, in tandem with the daily trigger line to keep the bullish signal.

Weekly indicators remained positive, with the weekly MACD and the weekly slow-stochastic momentum index keeping the buy call.

Outlook: Bursa Malaysia extended the upward momentum for the fifth consecutive week, largely due to “window-dressing” activity and funds taking fresh positions, as well as re-balancing their portfolios, with gains in the quality issues propelling the FBM KLCI higher to set a new record almost on a daily basis. The “fiscal cliff” resolution in the United States also aided local sentiment to some extent.

Based on the daily chart, the local bourse is bullish and it will remain so, as long as the key index continues to flirt inside the newly-established upward channel and supported by the rising 14-day and 21-day simple moving averages.

However, investors should take note that the local market has chalked up a total of 109.01 points, or 6.9% over the past five weeks and the bulls are starting to look tired. The next logical move would be to pause for air before resuming their rally later.

While we expect blue chips to correct in the short-term to avoid overheating, second and lower liners, a favourite for retail investors, are showing signs that they are ripe for a rally.

Technically, the daily and weekly MACDs are promising, but given the overbought condition, the local market is likely to consolidate, probably within a tight range this week.

Resistance is expected at every 20- or 30-point intervals above the 1,700-point psychological barrier.

Important support is pegged at the 1,680 points, followed by the 1,670 points and the next, at the 1,660-point mark.

MARKET TREND By K.M. LEE

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FBM KLCI hits all-time high; Bulls set to explore uncharted territory  

FBM KLCI hits all-time high; Bulls set to explore uncharted territory

Global inflows into Asia, Window-dressing help push up Malaysian stock market

above: FBM KLCi Weekly chart (click to enlarge)  

PETALING JAYA: The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (FBM KLCI) closed at an all-time high of 1,681.33 points yesterday, courtesy of global inflows into Asia and window dressing activities in local funds.

The local benchmark index also recorded an intra-day high of 1,686.70 points. It closed 7.17 points, or 0.25%, higher to 1,681.33.

Total turnover was 858.83 million shares valued at RM1.27bil. Gainers outpaced losers 436 to 255 while 345 counters remained unchanged.

“The market is behaving in a fairly predictable manner. According to past patterns, the market should be sustainable until as late as the second week of January,” said Interpacific Research head Pong Teng Siew.

He added that the market would most probably see a slight dip before it started rising again on a Chinese New Year rally.

“This is a two-tiered market, with many of the biggest blue chips doing well. However, it does not necessarily reflect a true representation of the entire market,” Pong said.

Alliance Research analyst Teoh Chang Yeow said although the FBM KLCI created a new record high of 1,686.70 points yesterday, the lack of follow-through buying interest saw it easing slightly.

“This pushed the benchmark index down below the 1,680-point level to a day's low of 1,678.58 points before settling at 1,681.33 points,” he said in a report.

He expects FBM KLCI to trade below 1,678.58 points on Dec 31, 2012, as analysis of the overall daily market action on Friday suggested that buying power was weaker than selling pressure.

On Friday, Asian markets were largely unaffected by the looming fiscal cliff woes of the United States. Instead, they paid more attention to the depreciating Japanese yen, which is a result of possible further monetary easing. The Nikkei 225 Index gained 0.70% to 10,395.18 points on news of a huge injection stimulus by the Bank of Japan.

In key regional markets, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.21% to 22,666.59 points; Shanghai's Composite Index gained 1.24% to 2,233.25 points; Taiwan's Taiex was 0.67% higher at 7,699.50 points; South Korea's Kospi gained 0.49% to 1,997.05 points, while Singapore's Straits Times Index moved 0.25% up to 3,191.80 points.

“While we are quite encouraged by the development here, it is still a fairly buoyant time for Asia,” Pong said.

At Bursa Malaysia, plantation stocks were among the top performers on firmer crude palm oil (CPO) prices brought on by the removal of export duty on palm oil effective Jan 1, 2013.

Plantation stock Batu Kawan Bhd rose the most, gaining 30 sen to RM18.30, while Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd moved 19 sen up to RM5.85. PPB Group Bhd gained 14 sen to RM11.36 while Sime Darby Bhd was up 10 sen to RM9.49. However, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd fell 16 sen to RM21.94.

Among the top gainers were British American Tobacco (M) Bhd which rose 84 sen to RM61, Petronas Dagangan Bhd up 24 sen to RM23.60, and Allianz Malaysia Bhd gaining 24 sen to RM7.08.

Top losers include Guinness Anchor Bhd, which was down 16 sen to RM16.48, JT International Bhd falling 12 sen to RM6.55 and IQ Group Holdings Bhd losing 12 sen to close at 38 sen.

US light crude oil was 11 cents higher at US$90.98 while spot gold fell US$3.18 to US$1,660.93.
The ringgit weakened against the US dollar at 3.0612.

By WONG WEI-SHEN
weishen.wong@thestar.com.my

Bulls set to explore uncharted territory

TREND ANALYSIS BY K.M. LEE

REVIEW: Growing worries that a budget deal could not be reached and a downbeat data on consumer morale in the United States and Germany prompted investors to liquidate risky assets.

In nervous trading, Wall Street's leading index, the Dow skidded 120.88 points to 13,190.84 and crude oil prices dived US$1.47 to US$88.66 a barrel the previous Friday.

Many people had expected the domestic front to kick off the final week of 2012 on a soft platform, but surprisingly, Bursa Malaysia was pretty upbeat, with the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) opening up 3.97 points to 1,662.82.

Asian equities steadied in quiet pre-Christmas trade, rebounding from huge losses previously on optimism the fiscal cliff problem in the United States would be resolved eventually. Taking the cue from a firmer regional trend, some institutional funds continued to indulge in year-end “window dressing” activity but interest was concentrated on certain quality issues.

Elsewhere, second and lower liners were mostly flat to lower on lack of retail participation. The apparent mixed landscape and dull volumes were clearly displayed on the scoreboard. Though the key index advanced a significant 10.55 points to 1,669.40 at the settlement, losers outnumbered winners by 324 to 279, with only 620 million shares done on Monday.

Most bourses worldwide were closed for Christmas. Major markets like Japan and China, which stayed open, sustained the uptrend lifted by exporters' counters due to weaker yen.

In spite of the bullish ambiance, the local bourse opened little changed, up 0.1 point to 1,669.50 in an initial deals, pending a clearer picture to emerge on Wednesday. The overall market sentiment was cautious, but “window-dressing” activities were very much alive, although no evidence of broad-based buying was sighted. But, as the key index crawled nearer to the historical peak, some players opted to book profit and their action somewhat capped the upside.

In range-bound session, the FBM KLCI fluctuated between an intra-day high and low of 1,673.19 and 1,665.83 before finishing at 1,671.58, up 2.18 points in thin turnover. Bargain hunters continued to dominate and rises in the blue chips lifted the key index 2.58 points higher to 1,674.16 on Thursday and an extra 7.17 points to 1,681.33, off an early new all-time high of 1,686.70, boosted by regional gains yesterday.

Statistics: For the week, the principal index climbed 22.48 points, or 1.4% to 1,681.33 yesterday, compared with 1,658.85 at the close on Dec 21. Total turnover for the four-day holiday week amounted to 2.920 billion shares worth RM3.941bil, versus 3.875 billion units valued at RM6.57bil traded during the regular previous week.

Technical indicators: Soon after slipping below the 80% bullish line, the oscillator per cent K reversed up quickly and climbed above the oscillator per cent D of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index to trigger a short-term buy on Thursday. Similarly, the 14-day relative strength index returned to the bullish territory, ending at 78 points level yesterday.

Meanwhile, the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram sustained the upward thrust, in tandem with the daily trigger line to retain the bullish note. Weekly indicators improved further, with the weekly slow-stochastic momentum index strengthening and the weekly MACD on the verge of calling a buy.

Outlook: The bulls bounced back from the danger zone with a vengeance late last month to give Bursa the fourth consecutive weekly gains. Based on the daily chart, the FBM KLCI had penetrated the previous record of 1,679.37 to establish a new all-time of 1,686.70 in early deals yesterday.

Apparently, the major breakthrough was not accompanied by great volumes, but we were not so concerned, as many big players were still on extended holidays. Hence, no matter how you look, it is a bullish breakout and the most important point is the bulls had somewhat removed the threat of a “double-top” reversal.

With more investors returning to the marketplace after the vacations and taking up fresh positions for the new year ahead, they can expect the market to firm deeper into the uncharted territory going forward.

Technically, indicators are painting a promising pictogram, suggesting a steadier trend this week. If there is an absolute change in the sentiment, the culprit would be a breakdown in the budget talks, coming from the United States.

The immediate upside is to challenge the 1,700 points psychological level. Thereafter, resistance is expected at every 20 points or 30 points intervals. Current support is pegged at the ascending 14-day and 21-day simple moving averages, resting at the 1,659 points and 1,643 points respectively.
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Test of 1,597.08 or a window-dressing decline?   FBM KLCI – May reverse near the key 1,597.08 all-time high.

Support: 1,562 to 1,581 Resistance: 1,596 to 1,597
Strategy: The FBM KLCI gained 10.50 points to close at 1,596.33 last Friday. The local market moved  uneventfully  until  last  Friday,  when  very  obvious  low-volume  1Q  window-dressing activities emerged. Volume shrank from 1.94b to 1.25b shares last Friday.

above: FBM KLCi Weekly chart (click to enlarge)  

The obvious areas for the FBM KLCI are in the 1,562 to 1,581 zone. The next resistance levels of 1,596 and 1,597 may see heavy liquidation activities. The FBM KLCI consolidated in a tight range of  801  to  936 from October  2008  to  April  2009,  but  broke  above  its  resistance  level  of  936.63 (Wave  a/B)  in  April  2009  and  surged  to  an  all-time  high  of  1,597.08  on  11  July  2011.  Its intermediate  Wave  b/B  low  was  836.51. We  traced  out  a  Wave  c/B  (of  the  Flat  3-3-5  variety) rebound phase to its all-time high of 1,597.08 (c/B). A downward “killer” large-scale “Wave C” is now in place and has only just begun, with a temporary low formed at 1,310.53 (Wave a/C). A temporary rebound wave (Wave b/C) is underway and may take the shape of yet another Rising Wedge pattern (as shown on the chart above).

If the index breaks the second upper Rising Wedge trend line, we would revise our Wave Count of an extended A-B-C correction to 1,310.53, and the current wave would be an extended Fifth Wave  of  the major  Flat  correction from the  801.27 low.  Trade  cautiously,  as the  index  may  be peaking soon with bearish divergent signals.  We favour this second “overbought scenario” for the index. A test of the 1,597.08-resistance (and all-time high) could be met with heavy selling. .

Some  stocks  we  like  are:  AMMB,  ARMADA,  BAT,  CRESNDO,  CYPARK,  DIGI,  HLBANK, JTIASA, KLK, KMLOONG, LBS, MHC, SOP, TAANN, TAKAFUL, TM and YTL.

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