PETALING JAYA: Despite slower banking loan growth indicators for June, analysts and industry observers are still bullish of a double-digit loan growth this year.
Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd (MARC) chief economist Nor Zahidi Alias said on the whole, the rating agency still foresee a relatively strong expansion in loans this year, notwithstanding the recent dip in loan applications and approvals.
Strong corporate demand would likely offset the moderation in
household demand for loans, he said, adding that the agency envisaged loan growth to moderate slightly to about 10% to 11% this year amid the weaknesses in the external environment.
Nor Zahidi: “Loans have expanded at a relatively strong pace.’ “The banking sector's loan growth has remained resilient despite a slowdown in the country's economic activity as reflected in slower
GDP growth in the past few quarters. Overall, loans have expanded by double-digit rates in the first six months of the year, after reaching the peak of 13.8% in September 2011.
“At the end of June, loans expanded at a relatively strong pace of 12.6%, supported by strong corporate demand for loans which grew by 13.6% year-on-year, offsetting the slower pace of loans to the household sector. Household sector's loan growth had softened to 11.8% in June from a cyclical high of 13.9% in November 2010, Nor Zahidi told
StarBiz.
Based on
Bank Negara's latest banking statistics for June 2012, loan growth was stable at 12.6% year-on-year versus 12.5% in May the same year. The growth was slightly higher for both consumer and business loans at 11.8% and 13.6%, respectively, in June.
The growth in loan applications moderated from 15.1% in May to 10.5% in June, while approvals contracted by 2.1% year-on-year, versus an increase of 18.2% in May. On an annualised basis, loans grew by 12.7% in June compared with 11.4% in May.
The pace of loan applications and approvals has been volatile partly due to the responsible lending guidelines. In the first six months of this year, the average growth in loan applications fell to 14.9% year-on-year compared with an average expansion of 25.5% recorded in the similar period last year. The average growth rate in loan approvals during the period shrunk to 2.8% against 22.6% average expansion in the first half of last year.
RAM Ratings head of financial institution ratings Wong Yin Ching said the total banking system's
year-to-date loan growth was 6.4% in the first half compared with 13.6% for the whole of last year, adding that the growth was driven by lending for purchase of residential properties,
working-capital financing, as well as financing for purchase of non-residential properties.
“We expect the growth momentum to be sustained in the second half of this year supported by stronger financing demand from the corporate and commercial sector, as the rollout of projects under the
Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and 10th Malaysia Plan gradually gains traction. In recent months, we have observed a pick-up in loan applications from the business and services sectors,” she noted.
Wong expects household loan growth to moderate following the various prudential measures introduced since late 2010. To this end, she said it had seen a sharp slowdown in loans extended for personal use, which only grew by 3.2% in the first half of 2011 (full-year: 20.1%).
Loan growth for residential mortgages also moderated slightly to 6.3% in the first half of 2011 (full-year: 13.2%). She said the rating agency also noted a slight shift towards lending for the purchase of non-residential properties following the tighter criteria for
residential property financing.
Meanwhile, Alliance Research Cheah King Yoong said the brokerage was maintaining its forecast of 11 % domestic loan growth this year, for now. Nonetheless, he said it foresaw there was increasing likelihood of an upside risk to its 11% domestic loan growth forecast in view of the strong pick-up of loans in June.
Should the loan growth momentum continue to be sustained in the second half with ETP related loans gaining pace, Cheah added he would not be surprised if this year loan growth could match last year's growth of 13.6%.
Based on the latest statistics, although property loans remained the key driver, where loans to purchase residential and non-residential properties constitute 46% of the annualised 12.7% loan growth for June, he said loans for “other purpose” and working capital had been gathering pace, contributing 28.8% and 22.3% of the loan growth drivers respectively.
He said business loans had recorded a commendable annualised growth of 15.9%, ahead of household loans' annualised growth rate of 10.1%.
Cheah said this reaffirmed Alliance Research's expectations that despite having a slow start in early 2012, overall domestic lending activities were picking up, with stronger growth of business loans stemming from the roll out of ETP's
Entry Point Projects, which filled up the vacuum left by the moderation in property loans.
Kenanga Research said despite the lending indicators showing a slowdown, it still believed loan growth would be able to outperform its industry forecast this year.
“Having already achieved a 12.6% loan growth this month, we believe that the
banking industry will be able to outperform our industry loan growth forecast of 11% to 13% despite a slightly weaker set of lending indicators,'' it noted.
A banking analyst with a bank backed brokerage felt it was too premature to indicate whether loan growth for the second half would pick up solely based on slower loan indicators alone. Loan growth may slow down in the second half but much would depend on how the results season pans out, he said, adding that, nonetheless, he still expected loan growth this year to be around 10.5%.
By DALJIT DHESI daljit@thestar.com.my
