Money in housing, cautious optimism in industry

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PETALING JAYA: The property market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic in 2023, with the gradual increase in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) since last year likely to affect market activity, particularly on residential demand, says the Valuation and Property Services Department.

The outlook of the workforce in the construction sector and the increase in the price of building materials will also affect supply.

Department director-general Abdul Razak Yusak said internal and external factors, such as economic and financial developments both globally and in the country, would also have an impact on the real estate sector and the sentiment of industry players.

“Looking at the national economy which is projected to grow by 4% to 5% in 2023, supported by continued resilient domestic growth prospects, the property market is expected to remain cautiously optimistic in 2023,” he said.The first quarter of this year alone saw over 89,000 transactions worth RM42.31bil, which was higher than those recorded in pre-pandemic years, he said.

“The seasonal factor in house purchases, which is usually low at the beginning of the year, the increase in OPR and the decline in Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) are among the factors that contributed to a decline in residential market activity in particular,” he said.

New residential launches, said Abdul Razak, were also indicating a cautious sentiment among developers, with the number recorded at nearly 4,700 units, which was less than those in previous years, while sales performance was moderate at 25.7%.

The decrease in new launches was in line with the decrease in the number of developers’ licences and advertising and sales permits of new housing sales and renewals approved by the Local Government Development Ministry from 5,641 in January and February last year to 2,911 during the same period this year, he added.

Johor recorded the highest number of new launches at 2,077 units or about 45% of the nationwide total with a sales performance of 24.9% while Selangor had the second highest at 791 units or 17% share with a sales performance of 37%.

Abdul Razak said in line with the cautious sentiment among developers, construction activity had slowed down in the first quarter of 2023.

“This is seen as a positive development to balance the unsold supply in the market,” he said, adding that the residential and serviced apartment overhang status continued to be positive.

“The number of overhang units has decreased to 26,872 units worth RM18.31bil in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of market absorption in all states, except Selangor. The volume and value of residential overhang decreased by 3.2% and 0.5% respectively compared with the fourth quarter of 2022,” he said.

Selangor recorded the highest number and value of overhang units, with 4,995 units worth RM4.47bil, followed by Johor at 4,759 units worth RM3.94bil, Kuala Lumpur with 3,423 units worth RM3.13bil, and Penang with 3,138 units worth RM2.48bil.

The purpose-built office (private) and shopping complex segment in Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, said Abdul Razak, should be given attention as there was a surplus of space, which was also expected to be severely affected by the inflow of new supply this year.This is as Kuala Lumpur recorded the highest available private purpose-built office space at 2.53 million square metres involving 290 buildings, followed by Selangor with 1.40 million square metres involving 192 buildings.

For the shopping complex segment, Selangor recorded the highest available retail space nationwide at 0.79 million square metres with 146 buildings followed by Kuala Lumpur at 0.56 million square metres with 97 buildings.

“Developers need to be more thorough and cautious before planning any new development and local authorities need to evaluate in detail before approving each new project,” said Abdul Razak.

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Is real estate still a viable investment asset?

 While Malaysia remains a nation of growing young working population, the main challenge with regard to homeownership is the lack of wage growth rather than the lack of affordable products.

In the case of real estate, it has its own merits because it is tangible and with the title of the property under your name, it is physically yours.

FOR the longest time real estate is the preferred investment asset class for many people. There are fond memories when it comes to making the right investment and more so for property owners who have enjoyed capital appreciation or significant rental yield by investing in real estate.

We also frequently hear of stories on how ordinary working and middle-class families successfully provided education for their children through the refinancing or selling of their own real estate assets.

Even in the grander scheme of things, real estate constitutes 7% of the total RM1 trillion in asset under management of our Employees Provident Fund.

How is it that this popular asset class has fallen out of favour with so many investors today?

Whenever I speak to clients on investments and their allocation, I would hear all kinds of unconventional investments schemes (regardless of whether legitimate or not) but at the mention of real estate, they would tell me that the golden days are long over.

It is rather demotivating to hear such comments, especially when I have been involved in this sector for a large part of my professional career while witnessing its heydays.

Economic cycles come around

The study of economics and its application may be subjective at times but there is one single theory that holds true over the course of time – that is the economic cycle.

Every asset class goes through a cycle, including real estate. From boom to bust and boom again, various factors play a part throughout the cycle.

If at all we look deep into the real estate cycle, we would easily realise the trend or pattern through each cycle.

Many decades before, real estate was scarce and buying property was a very expensive affair due to the high interest rates on loans.

In the 1990s, the loan interest rate per annum is close to double digits.

In addition, there are no full flexible or auto balance reduction loan offerings unlike today.

Coupled with very low margin of financing, mortgages are costly becoming the main barriers to homeownership. Then there is the issue of the law on property development which is not as comprehensive as it is today hence from a project commencement to completion, it was largely an unpredictable timeline.

Today, the laws are extensive both in terms of the development process as well as for the protection of property owners.

As a result, we have seen many companies with unrelated expertise or core business in property venture into development.

At last count, there are close to 200 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia which has property development or construction related businesses.

Coupled with the Strata Title Act, landbanks can be unlocked vertically rather than just horizontally unlike how it was before. This contributed to an oversupply.

On demand side, while Malaysia remains a nation with growing young working population, the main challenge towards homeownership is the lack of wage growth rather than the lack of affordable products.

In the residential segment, National Property Information Centre data shows that the unsold units have largely fallen in the past year from 36,863 units worth Rm22.79bil at the end of 2021 compared with 27,746 units worth Rm18.41bil as of December 2022.

There are also substantial number of units of residential overhang in the country with units totaling 14,000 units worth Rm4.63bil (which is 53% of total unsold inventories) within the affordable price range of less than RM500,000.

This means the stagnant wage growth in the face of global inflation has seen the people’s purchasing power weaken.

When disposable income falls, debt level rises, naturally big-ticket purchases with long term monthly commitment fall on the back burner.

Accommodative measures and policies

Real estate cycle is highly susceptible to changes in economic policies and government regulations including tax regimes.

When there is an accommodative policy such as a low interest rate environment or in Malaysia’s case when Developer Interest Bearing Scheme (DIBS) was allowed, it spurred huge demand for real estate because holding on to cash has little value.

Funds would either move into equity markets or real estate markets and other instruments to generate yield.

When the policies started to tighten with higher interest rates making borrowing cost higher, or removal of DIBS and even imposing higher Real Property Gains Tax amongst others, there was a flight of capital from the real estate sector.

We are now beginning to see some ray of lights at the end of the tunnel following eight years of market oversupply since the peak in 2014.

The flood of newly completed projects and unsold inventories in the balance sheet of developers which naturally became a bane for the industry is seeing some improvement following the auto correction in the economy cycle due to two years lost to the pandemic.

In addition, higher raw material costs, inflationary pressure and the diminishing value of our currency has slowly helped the market adjust to the property price as what was once deemed expensive becomes more tenable. This will help with the rejuvenation of the real estate market with the exception for commercial office segment.

Hedge against inflation

When we talk about investment, we need to consider the underlying assets’ ability to hedge against inflation apart from its absolute return.

Ultimately, so long as the underlying asset over a duration of time can beat inflation and preserve the value of your money, that would make it a viable investment asset.

Apart from that, it is important to make comparisons across asset classes to determine what best suits your personal need.

Everyone has their own risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Subject to your individual preference, one should choose the asset class that one is most comfortable with. Some may find insurance products pragmatic, some may prefer to invest in safe-haven commodities like gold or silver, others may prefer equities or bonds.

In the case of real estate, it has its own merits because it is tangible and with the title of the property under your name, it is physically yours. This makes it a highly acceptable asset class to most people including some who are not particularly financially astute or do not fancy complex capital markets products.

Any time is a good time for own use

No doubt when it comes to investing, everyone wants to make money. Otherwise, it defies the objective of investment.

If investments do not reap returns, might as well leave the money in fixed deposit.

However, real estate is a one of-a-kind asset class that has tangible benefits and allows enjoyment of the assets with the benefits of investment value.

Unlike gold or silver, the enjoyment is limited to seeing it glitter in your safe deposit or alternatively, melting it to design custom jewelry.

For real estate, specifically residential, one can move in and reside in it while for commercial or industrial properties, one can use it for business purposes.

This makes the investment thesis in real estate different from other asset class such as equities or fixed income.

The benefit of tangible use and enjoyment makes the timing of investment less significant if one has actual use for it.

Quoting Li Ka-shing, if you are looking to buy property for your own stay and not for speculation purposes, anytime is a good time. 

Ng ZHU HANN Ng zhu Hann is the CEO of tradeview Capital. He is also a lawyer and the author of Once Upon a time in Bursa. the views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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Financial literacy and bankruptcy

 

Stretching your ringgit: The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level best to stretch their ringgit in order to cope with the increasing cost of living from inflationary pressures, which are spiralling out of control.

It is not enough to be good at your job. Managing your money well is as important as having good hygiene.

Lack of financial discipline reasons for bankruptcy

Using a credit card or apps wisely to accumulate points for future spending, waiting for bargains such as free shipping options or vouchers on ecommerce platforms on special days of the months to purchase necessities are just a few examples of being financially aware. 

FINANCIAL literacy is an important agenda for a country’s economic well-being.

Most governments around the world would like for their citizens to be financially literate, be it entrepreneurs, working professionals, white collar or blue collar workers.

It is not enough to be good at your job. Managing your money well is as important as having good hygiene.

Recently, the Malaysia Department of Insolvency (MDI) reported that 287,411 people in the country have been declared bankrupt as of March 2022.

Between 2018 and May 2022, there was an increase of 46,132 new bankruptcy cases.

Of this number, 59% (amounting to 27,365) of the bankrupt were aged below 44.

This led to the Prime Minister highlighting his concern on youth bankruptcy and requesting for the relevant authorities to look into this matter including potentially revamping the laws on insolvency.

It is important to note that due to the pandemic, our government has in fact raised the threshold of bankruptcy from RM50,000 to RM100,000 in 2020.

Many legal actions against defaulters of loans were also postponed due to the effects of the pandemic.

Personal loan main reason for default

Diving into the MDI’S statistics, I realised that the main reason for bankruptcy was due to default of personal loans with an overwhelming percentage at 42%, followed by hire-purchase loans (15%) and business loans (13.5%).

Personal loans have often been touted to charge exorbitant interest rates, especially credit card schemes.

A simple illustration: when month end comes, there are often three options to settle your credit card bill, namely statement balance, outstanding sum or minimum sum.

The right thing to do would be to settle the statement balance. Settling the outstanding sum in full means that the credit card user is paying down the credit card debts which isn’t yet due, which defy the purpose of utilising credit card in the first place.

Paying only the minimum sum, which many people often do, would lead to one incurring high interest on the outstanding credit card debt.

This would snowball to levels which are highly exorbitant.

The statistics above is telling because it shows that excess consumption pattern is a key reason for bankruptcy.

In terms of youth bankruptcy, it makes sense especially with social media propagating binge spending, splurging on luxury goods and the shallow mindset of keeping up with the Joneses.

Living beyond one’s means owing to social pressure simply isn’t going to go out of fashion, more so in today’s digital age.

Proliferation of get-rich-quick schemes and scams

There is no doubt the lack of financial discipline and bad spending habits are reasons which contribute to this social issue.

However, I believe another major contributing factor is the increasing number of scams and get-rich-quick schemes. These schemes often tap on the most vulnerable segment of the society, namely those who are greedy, desperate or naive.

Greed is one of human nature’s biggest weaknesses. Despite the evolution of mankind, this primal instinct has continued to flow through the DNA of mankind. I do not doubt the importance of greed as a driver for progress, but too much and it becomes fatal.

Desperation, especially in the case of hardcore poverty or extreme emergency without anyone to rely on, there is hardly any choice to seek help.

We have seen this episode played out, especially in the times of economic recession, high unemployment not unlike the period of pandemic we have all been through recently.

Of the three, the most addressable would be the one who is naive, in short, one who lacks the necessary knowledge.

Stretching your ringgit

The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level best to stretch their ringgit in order to cope with the increasing cost of living from inflationary pressures, which are spiralling out of control.

I would like to put it on record: Accumulating financial knowledge does not mean becoming an investment prodigy. It can be as simple as understanding the various options for people to stretch their money.

One of the most common savings hacks would be to channel your monthly salary to a “flexi” or “semi-flexi” home loan account. This simple gesture every month automatically lowers the interest on the loan to be incurred.

Your unused funds will be utilised to further reduce the principal and interest while you have the option to withdraw the excess amount if you require to use the funds.

Using a credit card or apps wisely to accumulate points for future spending, waiting for bargains such as free shipping options or vouchers on ecommerce platforms on special days of the months to purchase necessities are just a few examples of being financially aware.

Of course, the best thing to do is to be prudent in spending, in essence practicing delayed gratification at all times.

The best investment is knowledge

It is a good sign that there is an increasing number of licensed financial professionals such as Chartered Financial Analysts and Certified Financial Planners out there today.

We also do see many more collaborative efforts between industry professionals working hand in hand with regulators in adopting social media to reach out to the masses.

With the advent of social media, it is also crucial to sift out genuine financial literacy advocates. After all, there are many free resources online today.

It is not to say the smartest people from the top of their professions cannot be hoodwinked. We have seen how 34-year-old Ng Yu Zhi of Envy Asset Management and Envy Global Trading swindled prominent people like the general counsel for Temasek Holdings Pek Siok Lan, criminal lawyer Sunil Sudheesan, ex-president of the Law Society Thio Shen Yi, chairman of Vickers Capital Group Finian Tan and CEO of Chuan Hup Holdings Terence Peh, among others.

This purported nickel trading scheme amounting to S$1bil (Rm3.2bil) was the largest fraud or Ponzi scheme in Singapore’s history. The best part, red flags were obvious where both of the perpetrator’s entities above were not licensed by Monetary Authority Singapore and he was promising 15% returns in three months to his clients.

Ultimately, it comes down to the individual and a good sense of financial awareness when managing one’s own hard-earned money.

The best investment is in yourself. Whether it is learning a new skill or advancing your education, self enrichment gives the best return on investment.

As Benjamin Franklin once said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”. He can’t be wrong considering his face is literally on the US dollar bill even till today. - StarBiz,

Ng Zhu Hann, the CEO of Tradeview Capital. He is also a lawyer and the author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

 

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Too good to be true? Think twice

HAVE you ever grabbed an offer without any hesitation, simply because the price is too cheap to resist?

Many of us have this experience especially during sales or promotional campaigns. We tend to spend more at the end or buy things which we are uncertain of their quality when the deal seems too good to say no.

It may be harmless if the amount involved is insignificant. However, when we apply the same approach to big ticket items, it can cause vast implications.

Recently, I heard a case which reinforces this belief.

A friend shared that a property project which was selling for RM300,000 a few years ago is now stuck. Although the whole project was sold out, the developer has problem delivering the units on time.

The developer is calling all purchasers to renegotiate the liquidated and ascertained damages (LAD), a compensation for late delivery.

One of the homeowners said he is owed RM50,000 of LAD, which means the project is 1½ years late. When we chatted, we found that he purchased the unit solely due to its cheap pricing without doing much research in the first place.

The incident is a real-life example of paying too low for an item which can leave us as losers, especially when it involves huge sum of investment, such as property.

To many, buying a house maybe a once-in-a-lifetime experience, a decision made can make or break the happiness of a family.

A good decision ensures a roof over the head and a great living environment, while an imprudent move may incur long-term financial woes if the house is left uncompleted.

Nowadays, it is common to see people do research when they plan to buy a phone, household item, or other smaller ticket items.

Looking at the amount involved and implication of buying a house, we should apply the same discretion if not more.

It is always important for house buyers to study the background of a developer and project, consult experienced homeowners regarding the good and bad of a project before committing.

I have seen many people buy a house merely based on price consideration.

In fact, there are more to be deliberated when we commit for a roof over our heads. The location, project type, reputation of a developer, the workmanship, the future maintenance of the property etc, are all important factors for a good decision as they would affect the future value of a project.

Beware when a discount or a rebate sounds too good to be true, it may be just too good to be true and never materialised. If the collection or revenue of a housing project is not sufficient to fund the building cost, the developer may not be able to complete the project or deliver the house as per promised terms. At the end of the day, the “price” paid by homeowners would be far more expensive.

In general, the same principle applies elsewhere. It is a known fact that when we pay a premium for a quality product from a reliable producer, we have a peace of mind that the product could last longer and end up saving us money. Some lucky ones will end up gaining much more.

For instance, when we purchase a car, we should consider its resale value as some cars hold up well, while others collapse after a short period. Other determining factors include the specifications of the car, the after sales service, and the availability of spare parts.

Quality products always come with a higher price tag due to the research, effort, materials and services involved.

In addition to buying a house or big ticket items, other incidents that can tantamount to losing huge sums are like money games, get-rich-quick scheme, or the purchase of stolen cars or houses with caveats.

When an offer or a rebate sounds dodgy, the “good deal” can be a scam.

Years of experience tells me that when what is too good to be true, we should think twice. I always remind myself with a quote from John Ruskin (1819-1900) who was an art critic, an artist, an architect and a philosopher. “It’s unwise to pay too much, but it’s worse to pay too little. When you pay too much, you lose a little money – that’s all. When you pay too little, you sometimes lose everything, because the thing you bought was incapable of doing the thing it was bought to do.

“The common law of business balance prohibits paying a little and getting a lot – it can’t be done. If you deal with the lowest bidder, it is well to add something for the risk you run, and if you do that you will have enough to pay for something better.”

Food for thought by Alan Tong

Datuk Alan Tong has over 50 years of experience in property development. He was the world president of FIABCI International for 2005/2006 and awarded the Property Man of the Year 2010 at FIABCI Malaysia Property Award. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email feedback@fiabci-asiapacific.com.

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China cracks down on P2P lending to curb illegal activities

• biznews005 CHINA’S P2P INDUSTRY OPERATION

BEIJING: China's banking regulator issued tough new rules on Wednesday to tighten regulation of the country's $60 billion peer-to-peer lending sector, which has been dogged by scandals and fraud.

The measures mark the latest attempt by China to reduce risks to the world's second-largest economy by cleaning up the its rapidly growing but loosely regulated online financial sector.

Peer-to-peer lending (P2P) platforms will not be able to take deposits, nor provide any forms of guarantee for lenders, according to a joint document issued by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), Ministry of Public Security, Cyberspace Administration of China, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The regulator said some P2P firms were running Ponzi schemes and raising funds illegally, and said it would bar firms from 13 "forbidden" activities.

Under the new rules, P2P firms would not be permitted to sell wealth management products which are popular with many Chinese investors, nor issue asset-backed securities, and must use third party banks as custodians of investor funds, the regulator said.

It added that P2P firms cannot guarantee investment returns nor investment principal, and they would be subjected to higher disclosure requirements.

The regulations follow the April passage of a plan by the State Council, or cabinet, to clean up the non-bank financial sector after rare demonstrations by angry investors stoked fears of social unrest.

The banking regulator is responsible for tightening regulations over P2P, online trust businesses and online consumer finance firms

China's online P2P lending platforms, which match small business and individual borrowers with retail investors with spare funds, has seen rapid growth in the past two years largely due to the lack of regulatory oversight.

The industry raised more than 400 billion yuan ($60 billion)by November last year, CBRC data showed.

But among the more than 3,600 P2P platforms, more than 1,000 were problematic, the CBRC had said.

The rise of P2P lending was originally seen by the government as a type of financial innovation that could make funds accessible to credit-hungry consumers and small businesses, which continue to struggle to get loans from traditional financial institutions.

Beijing's hands-off approach to promote the rapid development of the sector, however, led to a large number of high-profile P2P failures, scandals and frauds.

The consequences have devastated many retail investors, who dumped their life-savings into P2P platforms in hopes of receiving double-digit returns, threatening China's social and financial stability.

 Ezubao, once China's biggest P2P lending platform, turned out to be a Ponzi scheme that solicited 50 billion yuan ($7.5 billion) in less than two years from more than 900,000 retail investors through savvy marketing.

Investor funds were squandered by Ezubao executives on lavish lifestyles. Retail investors are still unable to get back their hard-earned money, and many have blamed Beijing for its lack of regulation and scrutiny. - Reuters

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  • biznews 009 P2P REGULATION

    • China tightens rules for online P2P firms

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Money lost under the shadow banking: loan sharks Ah Long

IN my previous article, I shared the impact of high credit card interest rate that many have overlooked and hence, overspent. Interestingly, there are loans outside the confines of financial institutions that affect the mass. These loans are largely unregulated and therefore, more painful in terms of financial burden and emotional stress when the loan and interest cannot be repaid on time.

Every now and then, I will receive text messages from unknown contacts offering loans at “attractive” rates. A check with my close associates indicates that I am not alone in receiving such messages. These messages and those stickers offering loans on the streets share the same traits, i.e. easy loan with no pre-qualification required. Example – “Borrow RM1,000, and return RM200 monthly for six months”.

At first glance, it seems like the interest rate for the loan is 20%. However, as the repayment period is only six months, it is actually 40% per annum! This rate is 11 times higher compared with the average fixed deposit rate of 3.5% per annum in the market.

These loans are offered mostly by unlicensed moneylenders, otherwise commonly known as “loan sharks”. According to a news article published in The Star recently, the interest they charged are mostly counted based on monthly or even daily rest basis.

It is learnt from the article that people usually borrow between RM1,000 and RM10,000 at an interest rate of 0.5% to 1% per day. This works up to about 15% to 30% monthly. When the loan is defaulted, another 5% is added as a late repayment penalty.

It therefore becomes evident that the borrowers of such loans face immense problem repaying their loans. They will generally end up borrowing from other moneylender to cover their existing loan which will lead them to more debts. Imagine the emotional stress from harassment when they are unable to serve the interest.

Sadly, this loan with its easy application process and low requirement attracts people who are financially desperate, regardless of professional or income group.

Bank Negara has announced that Malaysia’s household debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has increased from 86.8% to 89.1% as of 2015. We have one of the highest household debts in the region without including the unregulated loans from these “moneylenders”. I wonder how this “shadow banking” or “off balance sheet transaction” impact our people and economy.

To protect the rakyat, the government should look at strengthening the enforcement of eliminating illegal money lending.

As the saying goes “where there is demand, there is supply”. Hence the key is to first understand why people resort to borrowing from these “moneylenders”. It is important to strengthen financial education and awareness of public through various channels.

People, especially children, should be taught to borrow for the right things from young, and understand the difference between good debt and bad debt. More importantly, people should learn to ask themselves if there is a real need to borrow. Borrowing money to buy assets that depreciate over a short period of time, such as cars and luxury items is deemed as “bad debt”. This is in stark contrast to “good debt”, such as buying a home or asset that has the possibility of appreciating in the long term, and at the same time, paying a much lower interest rate compared with bad debts.

For people with a genuine need for financing, there are many other options such as borrowing from the banks and legal money lenders, or even to the explore “fintech”, a financial technology which offers more efficient and cheaper financial services through the use of technology. Again, it is important to ensure these channels are legal and well regulated.

Borrowing from unregulated moneylenders is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire. It is important to have wise financial planning in the first place and always seek advice before doing anything financially. One may get advice from government agencies, such as Agensi Kaunseling dan Pengurusan Kredit, when faced with financial challenges.


By Datuk Alan Tong, who has over 50 years of experience in property development. He was the World President of FIABCI International for 2005/2006 and awarded the Property Man of the Year 2010 at FIABCI Malaysia Property Award. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email feedback@fiabci-asiapacific.com.


Related:  

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